tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 51m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 10h 50m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 40m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:04 → CLT 08:04AA 1474 3h 33m Charlotte CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588 9h 52m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:27 → DTW 14:26DL 655 3h 46m Detroit DTW 18:12 → PHX 19:39DL 1135 11h 12m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 38m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 3h 09m Denver DEN 13:27 → PHX 14:33UA 631 9h 33m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → FLL 10:04 → DEN 12:17UA 204 3h 18m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 9h 31m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:03 → PHL 10:00AA 2089 3h 02m Philadelphia PHL 13:02 → PHX 15:11AA 765 11h 08m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON