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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1196 at 21:05, 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1196 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 21:05 PVD 00:21 26% 9% 1.2% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147 7h 06m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314 6h 33m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659 8h 01m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 1h 26m Detroit DTW 10:22 → PVD 12:22DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest 6h 22m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064 8h 25m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → FLL 09:05 → CLT 11:10AA 2087 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 13:50 → PVD 16:03AA 2679 6h 58m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → FLL 13:26 → ORD 15:52AA 1443 3h 22m Chicago ORD 19:14 → PVD 22:43AA 1293 9h 17m 100% 84%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 10:00 → MCO 11:08B6 2548 2h 56m Orlando MCO 14:04 → PVD 17:01B6 1075 7h 01m 97% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → FLL 18:28 → ATL 20:35DL 2345 52m Atlanta ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064 5h 29m 73% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON