Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, B6 1146 at 20:55, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1146 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	RIC 23:18	18%	10%	1.2%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	6h 33m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214	6h 27m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:07DL 3152	6h 27m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	FLL 18:28 → ATL 20:35DL 2345	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → RIC 00:51 +1DL 1175	6h 23m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	FLL 13:28 → ATL 15:32DL 1512	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:32 → RIC 20:15DL 1263	6h 47m	99%	87%
American Details →	FLL 06:04 → CLT 08:04AA 1474	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 10:48 → RIC 12:11AA 5119 · flown by PSA	6h 07m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	6h 45m	99%	86%
American Details →	FLL 07:03 → PHL 10:00AA 2089	3h 12m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → RIC 14:35AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont	7h 32m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON