Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 577 FLL 06:26 → SFO 09:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 277 FLL 20:55 → SFO 23:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 577 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:26	SFO 09:26	8%	3%	1.7%	88%
UA 1267 United	FLL 12:31	SFO 15:43	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
B6 277 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	SFO 23:51	16%	7%	0.7%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 57m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672	8h 22m	98%	82%
United Details →	FLL 09:00 → IAH 10:45UA 722	1h 48m Houston	IAH 12:33 → SFO 14:28UA 2611	8h 28m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON