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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Seattle, leaving 08:20, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 08:20 → SEA 11:49DL 356 2h 56m Seattle SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 11h 45m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 9h 07m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 17m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 1h 17m Denver DEN 11:35 → SJC 13:20UA 1256 8h 20m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → FLL 10:04 → DEN 12:17UA 204 3h 38m Denver DEN 15:55 → SJC 17:35UA 1883 10h 31m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:27 → DFW 09:43AA 1712 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:04 → SJC 13:54AA 2834 9h 27m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → FLL 15:30 → DFW 17:41AA 1390 3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:09 → SJC 23:34AA 364 11h 04m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → FLL 14:47 → MSP 17:39DL 673 51m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087 8h 48m 87% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FLL 16:20 → ORD 19:00UA 403 58m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 9h 23m 74% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON