Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4407 at 18:19, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4407 Southwest	FLL 18:19	STL 20:11	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	5h 20m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	3h 32m Detroit	DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371	8h 05m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 44m	99%	86%
American Details →	FLL 06:04 → CLT 08:04AA 1474	3h 54m Charlotte	CLT 11:58 → STL 12:54AA 3096	7h 50m	98%	84%
United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	3h 13m Houston	IAH 11:58 → STL 14:20UA 2042	8h 20m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 18:28 → ATL 20:35DL 2345	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 25m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	FLL 13:28 → ATL 15:32DL 1512	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → STL 20:06DL 2833	7h 38m	100%	83%
United Details →	FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311	3h 07m Denver	DEN 13:25 → STL 16:33UA 1639	9h 33m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON