Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5701 FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 5296 FSD 18:45 → DEN 19:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5701 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 06:00	DEN 06:53	5%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 5492 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 13:18	DEN 14:10	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 5319 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 11:35	DEN 12:25	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 5848 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 17:05	DEN 18:13	8%	3%	0.6%	68%
UA 1849 United	FSD 09:46	DEN 10:41	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5296 SkyWest	FSD 18:45	DEN 19:31	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON