Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3917 FSD 04:59 → MSP 06:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3890 FSD 16:24 → MSP 17:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3917 SkyWest	FSD 04:59	MSP 06:09	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1435 Delta	FSD 08:23	MSP 09:29	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3888 SkyWest	FSD 10:57	MSP 12:05	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3763 SkyWest	FSD 13:02	MSP 14:10	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3890 SkyWest	FSD 16:24	MSP 17:32	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON