Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1857 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1857 FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest OO 5320 FSD 15:03 → ORD 16:49 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1857 United Flight history →	FSD 07:35	ORD 09:31	9%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 4977 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 07:08	ORD 09:05	11%	5%	0.7%	84%
G7 4422 GoJet	FSD 11:09	ORD 12:55	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
OO 4991 SkyWest	FSD 12:14	ORD 14:04	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 5353 SkyWest	FSD 18:31	ORD 20:17	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 4992 SkyWest	FSD 18:39	ORD 20:25	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 5320 SkyWest	FSD 15:03	ORD 16:49	20%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON