tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6442 SkyWest FSD 08:13 PHX 09:29 8% 4% 0.6% no record
OO 4966 SkyWest FSD 14:18 PHX 15:23 11% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Sioux Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5701 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Denver DEN 09:53 → PHX 10:56UA 1782 6h 56m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → FSD 05:20 → ATL 08:53DL 1237 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 43m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → FSD 11:35 → DEN 12:25UA 5319 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 7h 00m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31UA 1857 1h 41m Chicago ORD 11:12 → PHX 13:05UA 2164 7h 30m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → FSD 17:05 → DEN 18:13UA 5848 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Denver DEN 20:53 → PHX 21:56UA 1194 6h 51m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → FSD 07:08 → ORD 09:05AA 4977 · flown by SkyWest 1h 32m Chicago ORD 10:37 → PHX 12:32AA 2192 7h 24m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → FSD 12:42 → DFW 14:59AA 2872 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:32 → PHX 18:11AA 2047 7h 29m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → FSD 18:05 → DFW 20:31AA 3820 · flown by Envoy 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:19 → PHX 22:03AA 2942 5h 58m 88% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON