tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 732 Southwest GEG 06:18 LAS 08:35 3% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 2596 Southwest GEG 12:53 LAS 15:15 8% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:44 → LAS 10:48UA 1767 5h 48m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → GEG 06:20 → PHX 09:05AA 2697 2h 03m Phoenix PHX 11:08 → LAS 12:35AA 457 6h 15m 98% 89%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 2h 52m Portland PDX 09:02 → LAS 11:12AS 1403 6h 12m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 6h 41m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m Seattle SEA 16:25 → LAS 19:00DL 2955 7h 30m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → GEG 12:37 → SFO 15:01UA 5217 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m San Francisco SFO 17:37 → LAS 19:27UA 751 6h 50m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest 1h 47m Los Angeles LAX 11:00 → LAS 12:12DL 1696 5h 52m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218 3h 10m Seattle SEA 09:50 → LAS 12:25DL 2905 7h 00m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON