Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3696 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 06:20	LAX 09:13	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 3794 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 16:12	LAX 18:51	8%	3%	0.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 07:00 → MSP 11:52DL 1615	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 13:09 → LAX 15:08DL 2974	8h 08m	96%	91%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	7h 07m	99%	90%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	1h 42m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	6h 34m	98%	90%
American Details →	GEG 06:20 → PHX 09:05AA 2697	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 10:50 → LAX 12:26AA 2027	6h 06m	98%	88%
Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 45m Portland	PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278	7h 27m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:37 → SEA 19:01DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Seattle	SEA 21:36 → LAX 00:13 +1DL 2512	6h 36m	100%	86%
United Details →	GEG 12:37 → SFO 15:01UA 5217 · flown by SkyWest	3h 32m San Francisco	SFO 18:33 → LAX 19:58UA 1799	7h 21m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197	6h 32m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 11:40 → SEA 12:50AS 2262 · flown by Horizon	48m Seattle	SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696	4h 45m	70%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON