Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4856 at 11:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4856 Southwest	GEG 11:00	OAK 13:05	6%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 41m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	6h 41m	100%	97%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	99%	95%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	6h 26m	99%	95%
Alaska Details →	GEG 15:49 → SEA 17:00AS 2350 · flown by Horizon	3h 42m Seattle	SEA 20:42 → OAK 22:45AS 706	6h 56m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	50m Seattle	SEA 07:05 → OAK 09:06AS 735	3h 59m	96%	80%
Alaska Details →	GEG 06:58 → SEA 08:05AS 360	2h 56m Seattle	SEA 11:01 → OAK 13:03AS 533	6h 05m	99%	70%
Alaska Details →	GEG 11:40 → SEA 12:50AS 2262 · flown by Horizon	3h 52m Seattle	SEA 16:42 → OAK 18:45AS 1328	7h 05m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON