tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 14:26, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5623 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 11:09 ORD 17:00 14% 3% 0.6% 67%
AA 677 American Flight history → GEG 14:13 ORD 19:54 24% 3% 0.6% 53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GEG 07:00 → MSP 11:52DL 1615 1h 33m Minneapolis MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533 6h 05m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → GEG 05:16 → DFW 10:55AA 484 2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 8h 35m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → GEG 06:20 → PHX 09:05AA 2697 3h 10m Phoenix PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 9h 48m 98% 83%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon 2h 19m Seattle SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265 7h 39m 100% 82%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 50m Portland PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13AS 324 6h 13m 92% 82%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218 3h 55m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ORD 16:43DL 637 9h 18m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest 2h 11m Los Angeles LAX 11:24 → ORD 17:35DL 2368 9h 15m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → GEG 08:27 → SEA 09:34AS 320 55m Seattle SEA 10:29 → ORD 16:44AS 429 6h 17m 63% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON