Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 710 GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AS 251 GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 710 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 05:00	PDX 06:10	4%	1%	0.8%	97%
OO 3023 SkyWest	GEG 08:23	PDX 09:46	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
QX 2211 Horizon	GEG 19:17	PDX 20:39	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
QX 2511 Horizon	GEG 14:59	PDX 16:21	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 251 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 12:42	PDX 13:52	14%	2%	0.7%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON