Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5217 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 12:37	SFO 15:01	16%	5%	0.5%	80%
QX 2091 Horizon	GEG 13:59	SFO 16:14	18%	5%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 17:37 → SEA 19:01DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635	6h 22m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	6h 42m	99%	87%
Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 59m Portland	PDX 17:51 → SFO 19:39AS 1393	6h 57m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest	7h 16m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	2h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	6h 43m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:12 → LAX 18:51DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	2h 06m Los Angeles	LAX 20:57 → SFO 22:22DL 1693	6h 10m	98%	76%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	1h 23m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 25m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest	1h 36m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → SFO 16:49DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest	5h 19m	94%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 09:21 → SEA 10:34AS 2069 · flown by Horizon	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 11:42 → SFO 14:04AS 655	4h 43m	75%	46%
Alaska Details →	GEG 06:58 → SEA 08:05AS 360	48m Seattle	SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09AS 528	4h 11m	57%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON