Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3038 at 17:01, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3038 Southwest	GEG 17:01	SJC 19:16	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 16:01 → SEA 17:28DL 4145 · flown by SkyWest	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	6h 47m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest	3h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	7h 52m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	100%	90%
American Details →	GEG 06:20 → PHX 09:05AA 2697	1h 57m Phoenix	PHX 11:02 → SJC 13:09AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	6h 49m	98%	89%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	1h 05m Portland	PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon	4h 09m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	5h 30m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Seattle	SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	5h 35m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:30 → SLC 16:14DL 1452	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:31 → SJC 18:29DL 1172	4h 59m	95%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 11:40 → SEA 12:50AS 2262 · flown by Horizon	47m Seattle	SEA 13:37 → SJC 15:43AS 657	4h 03m	66%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON