tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2686 Southwest GEG 05:41 SMF 07:34 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 438 Southwest GEG 15:52 SMF 17:46 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 6h 34m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 56m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → GEG 16:01 → SEA 17:28DL 4145 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Seattle SEA 20:25 → SMF 22:31DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest 6h 30m 100% 91%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 56m Portland PDX 17:48 → SMF 19:25AS 1500 6h 43m 100% 90%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 3h 21m Portland PDX 09:31 → SMF 10:52AS 1709 5h 52m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → GEG 16:12 → LAX 18:51DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Los Angeles LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest 6h 55m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Seattle SEA 17:00 → SMF 18:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218 3h 30m Seattle SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 6h 52m 97% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → GEG 08:27 → SEA 09:34AS 320 54m Seattle SEA 10:28 → SMF 12:06AS 763 3h 39m 69% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON