tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 4996 SkyWest GJT 11:53 PHX 12:42 10% 6% 0.6% no record
AA 6431 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → GJT 08:35 PHX 09:20 11% 5% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Grand Junction). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → GJT 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 4800 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m Denver DEN 09:53 → PHX 10:56UA 1782 6h 26m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → GJT 07:34 → SLC 08:45DL 4230 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 5h 38m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → GJT 11:19 → DEN 12:45UA 4709 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 6h 16m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → GJT 07:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1877 3h 03m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 6h 25m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → GJT 06:26 → DFW 09:50AA 6414 · flown by SkyWest 1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:22 → PHX 12:05AA 359 6h 39m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → GJT 13:33 → DEN 14:55UA 1788 3h 28m Denver DEN 18:23 → PHX 19:26UA 1507 6h 53m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON