Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 4230 at 07:34, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4230 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 07:34	SLC 08:45	2%	2%	0.5%	97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	GJT 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 4800 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SLC 09:37UA 497	4h 07m	96%	90%
United Details →	GJT 07:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1877	3h 18m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963	6h 13m	100%	88%
American Details →	GJT 06:26 → DFW 09:50AA 6414 · flown by SkyWest	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:26 → SLC 13:19AA 1871	6h 53m	98%	82%
United Details →	GJT 11:19 → DEN 12:45UA 4709 · flown by SkyWest	55m Denver	DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840	3h 54m	92%	79%
United Details →	GJT 15:15 → DEN 16:45UA 4635 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	5h 41m	97%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON