tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4048 at 08:24, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4048 Southwest GRR 08:24 BWI 10:10 2% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → GRR 06:00 → ORD 06:17UA 4458 · flown by GoJet 1h 29m Chicago ORD 07:46 → BWI 10:40UA 1269 4h 40m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 6h 51m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → GRR 07:07 → ORD 07:24UA 2099 3h 27m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 6h 50m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 6h 41m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → GRR 10:34 → DTW 11:33DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 6h 07m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:30DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor 3h 45m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 6h 17m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → GRR 12:51 → ATL 14:52DL 2547 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 5h 50m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → GRR 08:00 → DEN 08:54UA 2648 52m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 94% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → GRR 17:55 → DTW 18:59DL 5511 · flown by Endeavor 1h 05m Detroit DTW 20:04 → BWI 21:45DL 2715 3h 50m 70% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON