Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: OH 5187 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day


OH 5187 PSA	GRR 06:07	DCA 08:04	10%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GRR 14:03	DCA 16:04	25%	6%	0.7%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 48m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 17m	99%	90%
United Details →	GRR 07:07 → ORD 07:24UA 2099	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 10:14 → DCA 13:19UA 1904	6h 12m	99%	89%
United Details →	GRR 06:05 → EWR 08:00UA 3718 · flown by Republic	2h 40m Newark	EWR 10:40 → DCA 12:17UA 4172 · flown by GoJet	6h 12m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:33DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	5h 58m	99%	88%
United Details →	GRR 08:49 → ORD 08:59UA 1113	3h 46m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752	7h 03m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	GRR 07:53 → ATL 09:56DL 2161	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	4h 54m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	6h 35m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON