Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 10:34, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day


OO 6013 SkyWest	GRR 06:52	IAH 09:01	7%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Grand Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	GRR 08:49 → ORD 08:59UA 1113	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448	7h 51m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	6h 04m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913	2h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673	7h 14m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	GRR 18:19 → ATL 20:34DL 2058	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	6h 38m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:33DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor	2h 07m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	6h 07m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	GRR 07:53 → ATL 09:56DL 2161	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	6h 40m	99%	89%
United Details →	GRR 07:07 → ORD 07:24UA 2099	3h 22m Chicago	ORD 10:46 → IAH 13:36UA 2767	7h 29m	99%	88%
United Details →	GRR 06:05 → EWR 08:00UA 3718 · flown by Republic	2h 53m Newark	EWR 10:53 → IAH 13:38UA 556	8h 33m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON