Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5760 GRR 05:55 → LGA 08:11 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4498 GRR 13:04 → LGA 15:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5760 Republic	GRR 05:55	LGA 08:11	2%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 5712 Republic	GRR 11:36	LGA 13:48	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4498 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 13:04	LGA 15:16	8%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 5104 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 17:56	LGA 20:00	33%	12%	10.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON