Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: OO 4778 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day OO 4778 GRR 05:40 → ORD 06:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2138 GRR 14:06 → ORD 14:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4778 SkyWest	GRR 05:40	ORD 06:00	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3481 Envoy	GRR 05:45	ORD 05:55	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 6365 SkyWest	GRR 10:37	ORD 10:55	7%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2386 American	GRR 07:14	ORD 07:33	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 5674 SkyWest	GRR 05:19	ORD 05:02	7%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2099 United Flight history →	GRR 07:07	ORD 07:24	9%	3%	0.6%	71%
UA 1113 United Flight history →	GRR 08:49	ORD 08:59	9%	3%	0.6%	72%
OO 5709 SkyWest	GRR 10:11	ORD 10:15	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5329 SkyWest	GRR 11:58	ORD 12:02	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 4729 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 19:54	ORD 20:37	11%	4%	0.7%	67%
YX 4780 Republic	GRR 15:50	ORD 16:15	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3455 Envoy	GRR 16:18	ORD 16:37	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 5516 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 18:16	ORD 18:36	16%	6%	0.7%	51%
UA 2783 United	GRR 15:39	ORD 15:40	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2138 United Flight history →	GRR 14:06	ORD 14:15	19%	6%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON