tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4783 at 10:46 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4783 Republic GSO 10:46 DCA 12:16 9% 2% 0.6% no record
OH 5140 PSA GSO 19:21 DCA 20:40 22% 9% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSO 05:59 → LGA 07:36DL 5292 · flown by Endeavor 1h 14m New York LGA 08:50 → DCA 10:15DL 5742 · flown by Republic 4h 16m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 6h 02m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:35 → ATL 07:56DL 3004 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 6h 12m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → GSO 05:57 → DTW 07:37DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor 2h 23m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 5h 31m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → GSO 07:18 → ORD 08:20AA 3673 · flown by Envoy 2h 19m Chicago ORD 10:39 → DCA 13:43AA 1200 6h 25m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → GSO 09:28 → LGA 11:15AA 4419 · flown by Republic 2h 27m New York LGA 13:42 → DCA 15:14AA 4773 · flown by Republic 5h 46m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → GSO 06:09 → CLT 07:05AA 1078 2h 16m Charlotte CLT 09:21 → DCA 11:03AA 3043 4h 54m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → GSO 10:14 → ATL 11:31DL 3173 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 4h 42m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GSO 12:23 → MIA 14:32AA 3640 · flown by Envoy 50m Miami MIA 15:22 → DCA 18:02AA 3034 5h 39m 64% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON