Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: G7 4415 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day G7 4415 GSO 06:04 → EWR 07:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4508 GSO 14:41 → EWR 16:41 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4415 GoJet	GSO 06:04	EWR 07:47	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
YX 3445 Republic	GSO 19:08	EWR 21:11	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4508 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	GSO 14:41	EWR 16:41	16%	5%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON