tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4251 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history → GSO 06:06 IAD 07:22 7% 2% 0.9% 91%
UA 4819 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history → GSO 14:56 IAD 16:34 11% 3% 0.9% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 6h 12m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → GSO 05:57 → DTW 07:37DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor 1h 13m Detroit DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884 4h 26m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → GSO 10:14 → ATL 11:31DL 3173 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 32m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → GSO 08:14 → ATL 09:37DL 1085 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 5h 47m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → GSO 11:18 → DTW 12:57DL 4966 · flown by Endeavor 2h 11m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 5h 23m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → GSO 07:02 → DFW 08:52AA 2846 1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:19 → IAD 14:30AA 524 7h 28m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → GSO 14:59 → ATL 16:20DL 3060 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 4h 55m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → GSO 14:41 → EWR 16:41UA 4508 · flown by GoJet 3h 29m Newark EWR 20:10 → IAD 21:36UA 8177 6h 55m 96% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON