Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3640 at 12:19, 15%.

Nonstops that day


AA 3640 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 12:19	MIA 14:28	15%	5%	0.9%	91%
MQ 9869 Envoy	GSO 14:29	MIA 16:39	34%	11%	3.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 32m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	GSO 06:35 → ATL 07:56DL 3004	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 27m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	GSO 05:57 → DTW 07:37DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor	1h 45m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 31m	98%	89%
American Details →	GSO 06:09 → CLT 07:06AA 1078	3h 56m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	7h 02m	99%	89%
United Details →	GSO 06:06 → IAD 07:22UA 4251 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 23m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 29m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	GSO 10:14 → ATL 11:31DL 3173	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:32DL 1323	5h 18m	99%	84%
American Details →	GSO 07:14 → ORD 08:16AA 3673 · flown by Envoy	1h 43m Chicago	ORD 09:59 → MIA 14:09AA 2689	6h 55m	96%	83%
American Details →	GSO 07:02 → DFW 08:53AA 2846	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:28 → MIA 14:33AA 1454	7h 31m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON