Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day G7 4437 GSO 06:41 → ORD 07:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4387 GSO 17:56 → ORD 19:02 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4437 GoJet	GSO 06:41	ORD 07:44	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 3673 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 07:18	ORD 08:20	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
G7 4193 GoJet	GSO 10:48	ORD 11:53	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 4144 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 14:21	ORD 15:36	9%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 4118 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 19:13	ORD 20:33	12%	5%	0.7%	85%
G7 4387 GoJet	GSO 17:56	ORD 19:02	13%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON