Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3986 at 13:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3986 GSP 13:40 → DFW 15:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1805 GSP 17:13 → DFW 18:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3986 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 13:40	DFW 15:22	14%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 1254 American Flight history →	GSP 07:01	DFW 08:44	14%	5%	1.1%	81%
AA 1805 American Flight history →	GSP 17:13	DFW 18:45	25%	7%	1.1%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON