Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4578 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–36%.

Safest bet that day YX 4578 GSP 06:16 → LGA 08:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4534 GSP 18:03 → LGA 20:14 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4578 Republic	GSP 06:16	LGA 08:18	9%	4%	1.4%	no record
YX 4390 Republic	GSP 10:42	LGA 12:51	19%	8%	2.6%	no record
AA 4534 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSP 18:03	LGA 20:14	36%	24%	2.5%	70%
DL 5171 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 06:00	LGA 07:59	9%	5%	4.8%	91%
DL 4994 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 10:55	LGA 12:55	15%	7%	6.5%	85%
DL 5463 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 15:31	LGA 17:35	32%	18%	5.4%	68%
DL 5004 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 18:10	LGA 20:11	37%	19%	9.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON