Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 3806 at 06:30, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3806 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 06:30	MIA 08:26	11%	4%	1.0%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43DL 3028	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 13m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	GSP 06:45 → ATL 07:48DL 1146	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 17m	98%	86%
American Details →	GSP 06:35 → DCA 08:23AA 5031 · flown by PSA	1h 41m Washington	DCA 10:04 → MIA 13:03AA 401	6h 28m	96%	85%
American Details →	GSP 07:00 → CLT 08:16AA 5654 · flown by PSA	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 11m	97%	84%
American Details →	GSP 09:04 → CLT 10:25AA 5798 · flown by Piedmont	3h 10m Charlotte	CLT 13:35 → MIA 15:46AA 1198	6h 42m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	GSP 08:52 → ATL 09:58DL 1619	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:33DL 1323	6h 41m	98%	81%
American Details →	GSP 17:08 → CLT 18:10AA 5440 · flown by PSA	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 22:00 → MIA 00:10 +1AA 3068	7h 02m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	GSP 10:03 → ATL 11:04DL 3089	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 52m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GSP 11:42 → ORD 12:51AA 4160 · flown by Envoy	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 14:01 → MIA 18:23AA 1431	6h 41m	72%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON