Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 09:35, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 383 United Flight history →	HNL 19:40	DEN 06:17	9%	3%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 4 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:35 → SFO 17:57UA 1176	3h 03m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301	11h 12m	99%	89%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	11h 34m	97%	86%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	3h 13m Los Angeles	LAX 18:45 → DEN 22:15UA 2610	11h 15m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:57 → SEA 15:48AS 90	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 19:29 → DEN 23:01AS 310	12h 04m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON