Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 6 American Flight history →	HNL 17:39	DFW 06:00	15%	8%	1.2%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	1h 23m Los Angeles	LAX 16:56 → DFW 22:01DL 420	10h 01m	97%	81%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 41m San Francisco	SFO 16:56 → DFW 22:35UA 1336	10h 25m	96%	79%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:57 → SEA 15:47AS 90	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 17:54 → DFW 23:47AS 542	11h 50m	97%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON