Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LAX, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Nonstops today


DL 386 Delta	HNL 14:52	DTW 05:30	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 310 Delta Flight history →	HNL 14:45	DTW 05:25	14%	5%	0.9%	83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 22:20 → DTW 05:43 +1DL 407	11h 08m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	HNL 13:07 → SEA 22:05DL 359	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → DTW 06:28 +1DL 810	11h 21m	90%	81%
United Details →	HNL 13:30 → SFO 21:37UA 650	57m San Francisco	SFO 22:34 → DTW 06:17 +1UA 1986	10h 47m	78%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON