Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 09:35, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:35 → SFO 17:57UA 1176	3h 43m San Francisco	SFO 21:40 → IAD 05:58 +1UA 705	14h 23m	99%	91%
United Details →	HNL 13:30 → SFO 21:37UA 650	1h 41m San Francisco	SFO 23:18 → IAD 07:43 +1UA 2111	12h 13m	96%	86%
United Details →	HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157	2h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 23:28 → IAD 07:29 +1UA 418	12h 29m	93%	85%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 47m San Francisco	SFO 17:02 → IAD 01:18 +1UA 1453	12h 08m	93%	83%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	1h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 16:41 → IAD 00:53 +1UA 1506	11h 53m	92%	81%
Alaska Details →	HNL 09:40 → SEA 18:25AS 122	3h 06m Seattle	SEA 21:31 → IAD 05:44 +1AS 367	14h 04m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON