Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1956 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1956 HNL 05:58 → ITO 07:08 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1132 HNL 21:01 → ITO 22:06 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1956 Southwest	HNL 05:58	ITO 07:08	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1841 Southwest	HNL 06:05	ITO 07:10	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1957 Southwest	HNL 08:54	ITO 10:04	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1842 Southwest	HNL 09:03	ITO 10:08	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
AS 1002 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:10	ITO 07:03	8%	1%	1.8%	93%
AS 1022 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:00	ITO 08:54	11%	2%	1.8%	94%
WN 1958 Southwest	HNL 13:29	ITO 14:39	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1845 Southwest	HNL 20:53	ITO 21:58	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1843 Southwest	HNL 13:49	ITO 14:54	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1012 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:05	ITO 07:58	14%	2%	1.8%	88%
WN 1844 Southwest	HNL 17:12	ITO 18:17	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 1032 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:01	ITO 10:55	16%	2%	1.6%	89%
AS 1102 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:35	ITO 17:40	21%	5%	1.3%	74%
AS 1112 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:26	ITO 19:31	23%	5%	1.6%	76%
AS 1062 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:31	ITO 14:27	23%	3%	1.8%	87%
AS 1052 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:18	ITO 13:14	24%	4%	1.6%	70%
AS 1082 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:21	ITO 16:15	25%	5%	1.6%	64%
AS 1122 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:20	ITO 20:25	25%	5%	1.8%	80%
AS 1132 Alaska	HNL 21:01	ITO 22:06	26%	5%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON