Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1686 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1686 HNL 06:02 → KOA 07:06 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1198 HNL 21:08 → KOA 22:05 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1686 Southwest	HNL 06:02	KOA 07:06	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1961 Southwest	HNL 06:08	KOA 07:11	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1849 Southwest	HNL 09:48	KOA 10:52	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1962 Southwest	HNL 09:44	KOA 10:47	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 1018 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	KOA 06:46	5%	1%	1.8%	93%
WN 1852 Southwest	HNL 20:30	KOA 21:34	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1028 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:13	KOA 07:59	9%	2%	1.8%	95%
WN 1851 Southwest	HNL 17:09	KOA 18:13	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1649 Southwest	HNL 13:22	KOA 14:26	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1038 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:28	KOA 08:30	9%	2%	1.8%	93%
AS 1048 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:59	KOA 09:01	11%	2%	1.8%	94%
AS 1068 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:08	KOA 10:10	13%	3%	1.8%	85%
AS 1078 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:59	KOA 11:01	15%	3%	1.8%	79%
AS 1088 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:07	KOA 12:04	19%	3%	1.6%	71%
AS 1098 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:34	KOA 12:31	19%	3%	1.6%	74%
AS 1168 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:36	KOA 17:33	19%	5%	1.6%	88%
AS 1178 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:33	KOA 18:30	20%	5%	1.6%	84%
AS 1188 Alaska	HNL 18:46	KOA 19:43	22%	5%	1.3%	no record
AS 1158 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:08	KOA 16:05	22%	5%	1.6%	80%
AS 1128 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:39	KOA 13:36	22%	3%	1.6%	72%
AS 1108 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:01	KOA 12:58	23%	3%	1.8%	74%
AS 1198 Alaska	HNL 21:08	KOA 22:05	25%	6%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON