Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2895 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2895 HNL 08:03 → LAS 16:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 818 HNL 15:09 → LAS 23:47 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2895 Southwest	HNL 08:03	LAS 16:45	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 474 Southwest	HNL 08:07	LAS 16:56	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1189 Southwest	HNL 21:13	LAS 05:56	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 808 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 23:20	LAS 08:03	19%	6%	0.9%	78%
AS 806 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:55	LAS 16:39	20%	4%	0.7%	78%
AS 818 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:09	LAS 23:47	24%	6%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	1h 53m Kahului	OGG 10:36 → LAS 19:10AS 932	8h 08m	99%	85%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	1h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 16:41 → LAS 17:52UA 1108	7h 52m	95%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON