Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 422 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 422 HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 802 HNL 13:10 → LAX 21:32 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 422 Delta Flight history →	HNL 07:00	LAX 15:33	7%	2%	0.9%	94%
WN 1550 Southwest	HNL 21:35	LAX 06:00	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1221 United Flight history →	HNL 07:00	LAX 15:32	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 658 Delta Flight history →	HNL 21:30	LAX 06:00	8%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 144 American Flight history →	HNL 20:30	LAX 05:02	10%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 1169 United Flight history →	HNL 21:40	LAX 06:03	10%	4%	0.7%	92%
DL 427 Delta Flight history →	HNL 12:35	LAX 21:00	11%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 164 American Flight history →	HNL 15:26	LAX 00:12	14%	5%	0.6%	89%
AS 804 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 20:39	LAX 05:00	15%	4%	0.8%	79%
AA 162 American Flight history →	HNL 13:38	LAX 22:29	16%	6%	0.6%	81%
UA 1157 United Flight history →	HNL 13:00	LAX 21:23	16%	5%	0.7%	83%
AS 826 Alaska	HNL 11:44	LAX 20:04	20%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 810 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:00	LAX 16:20	25%	3%	0.8%	70%
AS 802 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:10	LAX 21:32	33%	5%	0.8%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 12:01 → KOA 12:58AS 1108	1h 31m Kailua/Kona	KOA 14:29 → LAX 22:35AS 561	7h 34m	96%	82%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 05m San Francisco	SFO 16:20 → LAX 17:55UA 8154	7h 45m	93%	78%
Alaska Details →	HNL 12:31 → OGG 13:15AS 1106	1h 45m Kahului	OGG 15:00 → LAX 23:07AS 934	7h 36m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON