Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1859 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1859 HNL 06:23 → LIH 07:19 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1173 HNL 21:18 → LIH 21:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1859 Southwest	HNL 06:23	LIH 07:19	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1517 Southwest	HNL 06:24	LIH 07:19	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1860 Southwest	HNL 09:43	LIH 10:39	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1970 Southwest	HNL 09:38	LIH 10:33	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 1003 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	LIH 06:40	6%	1%	1.9%	95%
WN 1862 Southwest	HNL 17:16	LIH 18:12	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1863 Southwest	HNL 20:39	LIH 21:35	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1013 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:10	LIH 07:50	15%	2%	1.9%	91%
AS 1023 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:43	LIH 08:37	15%	2%	1.9%	91%
AS 1043 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:10	LIH 10:04	15%	2%	2.1%	91%
WN 1668 Southwest	HNL 13:34	LIH 14:30	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1033 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:33	LIH 09:14	16%	2%	2.1%	92%
AS 1053 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:50	LIH 10:44	16%	2%	2.1%	85%
AS 1063 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:42	LIH 11:31	18%	3%	2.1%	82%
AS 1073 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:30	LIH 12:19	25%	4%	1.9%	62%
AS 1163 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:31	LIH 20:20	26%	5%	1.8%	83%
AS 1143 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:08	LIH 18:49	26%	7%	1.3%	75%
AS 1123 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:24	LIH 17:13	33%	6%	1.6%	68%
AS 1083 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:28	LIH 14:17	33%	6%	1.9%	68%
AS 1173 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:18	LIH 21:59	33%	6%	1.6%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON