Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1864 at 21:38 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1864 HNL 21:38 → OAK 05:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 848 HNL 12:40 → OAK 20:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1864 Southwest	HNL 21:38	OAK 05:44	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4892 Southwest	HNL 13:08	OAK 21:07	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 848 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:40	OAK 20:40	26%	5%	0.7%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 10:37 → LIH 11:31AS 1063	1h 09m Lihue	LIH 12:40 → OAK 21:02AS 968	7h 25m	88%	73%
Alaska Details →	HNL 10:22 → OGG 11:16AS 1066	1h 00m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → OAK 20:16AS 924	6h 54m	78%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON