Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 13:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 218 United Flight history →	HNL 16:00	ORD 05:05	13%	5%	0.9%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 13:30 → SFO 21:37UA 650	1h 53m San Francisco	SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368	11h 27m	98%	86%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 10m San Francisco	SFO 18:25 → ORD 00:50 +1UA 1958	12h 40m	97%	85%
United Details →	HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157	2h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 23:30 → ORD 05:46 +1UA 1962	11h 46m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	2h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 17:48 → ORD 23:53DL 1634	11h 53m	97%	81%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	1h 14m Los Angeles	LAX 16:46 → ORD 22:54UA 2780	10h 54m	95%	80%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:57 → SEA 15:47AS 90	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538	12h 02m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON