Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Kailua/Kona, leaving 09:59, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 961 Alaska	HNL 21:52	PDX 06:19	18%	4%	1.2%	no record
AS 814 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:22	PDX 20:50	25%	4%	0.9%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 17:08 → OGG 17:57AS 1186	3h 54m Kahului	OGG 21:51 → PDX 06:07 +1AS 558	9h 59m	99%	89%
Alaska Details →	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	3h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 19:36 → PDX 22:02AS 207	11h 02m	99%	88%
United Details →	HNL 09:35 → SFO 17:56UA 1176	2h 54m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	10h 13m	99%	88%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:26 → OGG 08:06AS 1036	3h 16m Kahului	OGG 11:22 → PDX 19:37AS 480	9h 11m	100%	86%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:28 → KOA 08:30AS 1038	3h 54m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:24 → PDX 21:02AS 833	10h 34m	100%	86%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 44m San Francisco	SFO 18:59 → PDX 20:48UA 1227	10h 38m	97%	84%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:10 → LIH 07:50AS 1013	3h 34m Lihue	LIH 11:24 → PDX 19:59AS 974	9h 49m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	1h 48m Las Vegas	LAS 18:27 → PDX 20:46AS 779	9h 51m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON