Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1877 HNL 21:09 → PHX 05:59 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 836 HNL 11:50 → PHX 20:48 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1877 Southwest	HNL 21:09	PHX 05:59	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 694 American Flight history →	HNL 21:36	PHX 06:44	19%	6%	0.7%	82%
AS 836 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:50	PHX 20:48	22%	4%	0.7%	83%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574	8h 29m	95%	77%
United Details →	HNL 09:35 → SFO 17:57UA 1176	1h 02m San Francisco	SFO 18:59 → PHX 20:56UA 1375	8h 21m	90%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON