Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1989 at 08:08 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 1989 HNL 08:08 → SAN 16:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 816 HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1989 Southwest	HNL 08:08	SAN 16:34	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1879 Southwest	HNL 08:19	SAN 16:45	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1880 Southwest	HNL 22:05	SAN 06:30	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 827 Alaska	HNL 07:11	SAN 15:43	18%	3%	1.6%	no record
AS 93 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 22:23	SAN 06:56	21%	5%	2.1%	89%
AS 816 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:39	SAN 21:07	33%	4%	1.3%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest	8h 07m	97%	86%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:59 → KOA 09:02AS 1048	1h 35m Kailua/Kona	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	8h 03m	97%	80%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	58m Los Angeles	LAX 16:30 → SAN 17:38UA 582	7h 38m	92%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON