Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 440 at 22:47 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 440 HNL 22:47 → SEA 07:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 822 HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 440 Delta Flight history →	HNL 22:47	SEA 07:36	9%	5%	0.8%	94%
DL 359 Delta Flight history →	HNL 13:07	SEA 22:05	11%	4%	0.8%	87%
AS 90 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:57	SEA 15:46	15%	3%	0.8%	69%
AS 1878 Alaska	HNL 07:30	SEA 15:59	22%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 902 Alaska	HNL 10:49	SEA 19:25	22%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 122 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:39	SEA 18:24	25%	3%	0.8%	71%
AS 1400 Alaska	HNL 14:57	SEA 23:25	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 900 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 23:20	SEA 08:00	33%	5%	1.0%	73%
AS 822 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:50	SEA 21:34	39%	5%	0.8%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 09:59 → KOA 11:01AS 1078	1h 37m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:38 → SEA 21:09AS 475	8h 10m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	HNL 10:22 → OGG 11:11AS 1066	1h 44m Kahului	OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25AS 930	8h 03m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	HNL 19:31 → LIH 20:20AS 1163	1h 14m Lihue	LIH 21:34 → SEA 06:00 +1AS 213	7h 29m	85%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON