Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 373 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 373 HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 812 HNL 12:20 → SFO 20:28 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 373 United Flight history →	HNL 07:10	SFO 15:15	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1346 United Flight history →	HNL 22:10	SFO 06:09	10%	4%	0.8%	94%
UA 1176 United Flight history →	HNL 09:34	SFO 17:55	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 1947 United Flight history →	HNL 14:04	SFO 22:23	13%	4%	0.7%	79%
AS 834 Alaska	HNL 00:09	SFO 07:59	14%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 650 United Flight history →	HNL 13:19	SFO 21:27	19%	4%	0.7%	83%
AS 812 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:20	SFO 20:28	27%	5%	1.3%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	1h 49m Kahului	OGG 10:32 → SFO 18:27AS 978	7h 25m	99%	88%
Alaska Details →	HNL 13:28 → LIH 14:18AS 1083	1h 25m Lihue	LIH 15:43 → SFO 23:56AS 788	7h 28m	93%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON