Today: WN 1881 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–22%.

Safest bet today WN 1881 HNL 08:31 → SJC 16:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 839 HNL 11:41 → SJC 19:39 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1881 Southwest	HNL 08:31	SJC 16:41	8%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 1992 Southwest	HNL 08:18	SJC 16:16	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
AS 839 Alaska	HNL 11:41	SJC 19:39	22%	5%	0.4%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 10:59 → OGG 11:41AS 1076	1h 43m Kahului	OGG 13:24 → SJC 21:25AS 954	7h 26m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON